20 novembre, 2010

Factbox: Doves win out over hawks in latest Fed move

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may have faced less resistance from fellow policymakers than earlier thought as he led the U.S. central bank to a consensus in favor of a $600 billion bond-buying program.

Several Fed officials have publicly rallied behind the policy after it drew a rising chorus of criticism from U.S. lawmakers and foreign capitals alike.

The following is a rating of where Fed policymakers stand on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 signifying "doves," most likely to support monetary easing and 5 representing "hawks," most likely to oppose it.

1 -- CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT CHARLES EVANS (2011 voter)

Evans has been outspoken in supporting further Fed easing.

"The magnitude of resource slack, combined with the fact that inflation has been running below the level I consider consistent with long-term price stability, suggests to me that it would be desirable to increase monetary policy accommodation," Evans said on October 19.

Evans has also advocated that the Fed temporarily target a higher level of inflation than is normally desirable -- a controversial approach called price-level targeting -- to drive down real interest rates and restore growth.

1 -- NEW YORK FED PRESIDENT WILLIAM DUDLEY (permanent voter)

Dudley has been an outspoken advocate of further easing and has defended the action strongly.

"We have no goal in terms of pushing the dollar up or down," he told The New York Times in an interview published November 16. "Our goal is to ease financial conditions and to stimulate a stronger economic expansion and more rapid employment growth."

"This exit could be years away," he told CNBC in a separate interview aired on the same day. [ID:nN16272043] "It's going to make the economy grow a little bit faster. It's going to generate a little bit more employment growth. But you know, we have a long bumpy road to travel."

1 -- BOSTON FED PRESIDENT ERIC ROSENGREN (2010 voter)

Rosengren has advocated aggressive Fed action in the face of a flagging recovery and has defended the move since it was announced.

"I am certain that our purchases over time will contribute to lower rates than we would otherwise be seeing," he said November 17.

1 -- FED GOVERNOR DANIEL TARULLO (permanent voter)

Tarullo, an appointee of President Barack Obama, focuses on bank supervision and does not speak frequently about the outlook for the economy or policy. He has, however, been supportive of quantitative easing and analysts expect he would back a further round of support.

"The relatively modest pace of recovery, the continued high rate of unemployment, subdued inflation trends and well-anchored inflation expectations together suggest that the need for highly accommodative monetary policies will not diminish soon," Tarullo said on April 8.

1 -- FED VICE CHAIR JANET YELLEN (permanent voter)

Yellen, firmly in the pro-easing camp when she was president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank and Obama tapped her to be vice chair of the Board of Governors, took no one by surprise with her vigorous defense of the Fed's latest move.

"This should not be regarded as some sort of chapter in a currency war," she told The Wall Street Journal in an interview published November 15.

"I don't think this is a panacea. But the question is: Do we have an effective policy that we can adopt?

"If we do, and it actually produces expected benefits and addresses risks that we face, then there is a clear case for doing it."

2 -- FED GOVERNOR SARAH RASKIN (permanent voter)

The views of Raskin, a recent Obama appointee, on monetary policy are not well known. In her confirmation hearing, however, she called for a renewed focus on the full employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, suggesting she embraces easing measures.

Raskin's background as a regulatory official for the state of Maryland and as a Democratic Senate aide suggest she will likely not want to be pigeonholed as a hawk or dove and will want to evaluate easing on its merits to be certain exit strategies are solid.

She is also likely to be concerned about the possibility of asset bubbles and could be open the central bank actions to thwart the boom and bust cycle.

2 -- FED CHAIRMAN BEN BERNANKE (permanent voter) Bernanke's view carried the day at the Fed, and all but one of the voting policymakers fell in line behind him on November 3.

The Fed chief offered an extensive rationale for easing and a rebuttal to critics November 18, saying if the Fed could have lowered interest rates, it would have. Sluggish growth, stubbornly high unemployment and falling inflation forced the Fed's hand, he said.

"On its current economic trajectory the United States runs the risk of seeing millions of workers unemployed or underemployed for many years. As a society, we should find that outcome unacceptable," he said.

2 -- FED GOVERNOR NOMINEE PETER DIAMOND (permanent voter)

The U.S. Senate banking committee approved the nomination of Diamond, an MIT professor whose work helping explain unemployment and job markets won him the Nobel Prize in Economics this year. He must be confirmed by the full Senate if he is to take a seat on the board.

His views on monetary policy are not well-known। However, in the wake the Nobel announcement, he advocated more fiscal stimulus to help stem job losses, particularly among local government workers, suggesting he is open Fed action to accelerate the recovery.

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